AUGUST 2022 MARKET INSIGHTS
July proved to be a bit of a reprieve from the negative equity returns that have plagued the U.S. stock market in 2022. For July, the S&P 500 returned 9.2% and, through this morning, is now down -12.6% for the year[1]. The issues causing weakness in the stock markets have largely remained in place. For example, we are no closer to a resolution in Ukraine and Putin is likely more determined for an outcome that helps him maintain some semblance of respect in Russia. Inflation remains red hot, although you would not know that by looking at the bond market. China’s potential conflict with Taiwan remains high and has only intensified with Nancy Pelosi’s recent trip. Finally, the supply chain remains challenged, fuel costs are high, housing remains constrained and expensive, and wage costs will continue to have an impact on inflation.
The last reading on inflation indicated that consumer prices rose 9.1% over the past 12 months[2]. With the continued elevation of fuel costs, the prices of virtually everything are higher than last year and likely going higher. I have written about how the cost of energy impacts everything from manufacturing through delivery and is only adding to the aggregate cost. We remain very concerned about the cost of energy and Russia’s ongoing “maintenance” of the Nord Stream Pipeline, which may force some European countries to return to coal for electricity. We continue to watch the attempts to launch a full-blown green revolution that is met by the inconvenient truth that clean energy technology and storage is not fully developed yet.
While the war in Ukraine continues to rage on, tensions between Taiwan and China have become more pronounced given Nancy Pelosi’s recent visit. One theory is that this trip became more of an issue because President Biden publicly mused about whether she should have made the trip. By making the trip a thing, China was forced into a reaction which was mainly manifested by military exercises the day after Pelosi left Taiwan. The question is whether China invades Taiwan prior to the Chinese political meetings later this year where President Xi Jinping is seeking a third term.
Returning to the bond market, yields have fallen to 2.65% from this year’s high of 3.47% that occurred on June 14[3]. Despite persistent inflation, it appears that the bond market is betting that the Federal Reserve (“Fed”) will get inflation under control. The Fed has hiked rates by 75 basis points in each of the last two meetings and they are expected to keep raising rates until inflation is under control. Theoretically, by making money expensive, this will tamp down demand and that will lead to lower prices.
As analysts, we are always trying to decipher if there is anything in the current environment that is different from prior inflationary environments. The most glaring difference is the amount of Fed involvement in the bond markets since the Great Recession in the 2008-2009 timeframe. I have written about the uncertainty that would arise when the Fed withdrew stimulus, and we are seeing that now. At the time that we are battling inflation, the rest of the world is also looking at inflation and demanding the haven of U.S. securities given the number of geopolitical concerns. As a result, bond rates remain well below inflation. The inversion of the yield curve has been a precursor for recessions. As we currently have a curve inversion of 24 basis points between 2-Year Treasury notes and 10-Year Treasury notes[4], the bond market is signaling a recession. Regular readers know of my affinity for the Index of Leading Indicators. This index is made up of sub factors such as stocks, interest rates, wages and other factors. The index has historically had strong forecasting for economic activity for 6 – 12 months in the future. Over the last four months, and we have witnessed the index rolling over (an indicator of slowing economic activity).
Despite arguments over what technically defines a recession, we believe we are likely in a recession. Gross Domestic Product has been negative for two quarters, we are starting to see job layoffs in certain sectors, and housing prices are starting to soften. Will this be a soft landing or a more protracted recession? That we do not know. However, we are also seeing that consumers and companies are more solvent and the declines in stock prices have also made equities more reasonably valued.
As we go through the next several months, we will be able to evaluate the path of the market and the economy. As I write this on the morning of August 5th, the payroll numbers were released and showed that we added over 500,000 jobs last month[5]; a sign that the job market may be stronger than previously thought. We remain constructive on the economy given the continued path of consumer demand and the general financial health of consumers and companies. That said, we remain concerned about geopolitical tensions, overall energy prices and remaining supply chain issues. The move to localize the supply chain will be inflationary because the low-cost labor in Southeast Asia effectively allowed for deflation to be exported to the west. If we make supply chains more local, the efficiency of mass production will be minimized, and western wage costs will drive up prices. You cannot have cheap prices and high wages. Finally, we believe that the Fed will continue to battle inflation, and this is providing a level of confidence in the U.S. markets. Our Asset Allocation Committee has not recommended any changes to our model portfolios, but this is something we watch regularly.
The next few months will be interesting, particularly as we add the Midterm elections into the mix. Congress seems poised to pass the watered-down Build Back Better Plan as the Democrats are desirous of a legislative “win” to show their constituents. I hope you enjoy the remainder of the summer and please reach out if we can be helpful in your deliberations about your portfolio.
Until next month.
[1] Source: Bloomberg, as of July 29, 2022
[2] Source: Bloomberg, as of June 2022
[3] Source: Bloomberg, as of July 29, 2022