12/23/2024
Periodically I have mentioned that I have an affinity for movies because they help me relax. One of my favorite scenes of all time is Jack Nicholson’s speech as Colonel Jessep at the end of the movie “A Few Good Men” when he tells defense attorney Navy JAG Corps Lieutenant Lionel Kaffee (played by Tom Cruise) that “you want me on that wall, you need me on that wall.” I was reminded of this famous scene yesterday in the remarks that came from the Fed.
Continue Reading - Gotcha!
12/11/2024
One of the benefits of having been around awhile is that you are able to see previous trends and how they played out over time.
Continue Reading - AI Hype vs. Reality
11/26/2024
It has been a very busy time at Knights of Columbus, so I have not had the time to write a post. This morning (November 25th) the stock market continues to climb as the S&P is up about 0.4% today and 25.7% year-to-date.
Continue Reading - A Thanksgiving Note
10/29/2024
People with forums far larger than KoCAA discussed in great detail how the Fed’s position on transitory inflation was completely wrong. At the risk of immodesty, we were on that many months before it became regular fodder for the financial press.
Continue Reading - Debt – It’s More Than a 4-Letter Word
10/4/2024
Morgan Stanley published their survey on consumer confidence in the U.S. and Mike shared the results with our team. Interestingly enough, the outlook has brightened with 42% of consumers expecting the economy to improve in the next six months.
Continue Reading - Where Does This Leave Us?
9/17/2024
The “it” is the insane level of debt that this country continues to pile up and the distinct lack of political will that no one seems to want to bring to the party.
Continue Reading - I Wonder When They Will Get It.
9/10/2024
The morning of September 5th was a fairly active day for economic data releases.
Continue Reading - As The Data Rolls
9/3/2024
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell announced this morning that it is time to begin reducing the Federal Funds rate.
Continue Reading - Well, that’s a Wrap!
8/22/2024
I have explicitly stated since I started writing this column that I would only touch on politics insomuch as it impacted the economy.
Continue Reading - No, She Didn’t!
8/5/2024
The dust hasn’t actually settled, and we’re due for a few more dust-ups before the Presidential election outcome is known.
Continue Reading - When the Dust Settles
7/25/2024
As it relates to markets, before the Biden announcement it seemed that the market had decided we were heading for a Trump victory, and we even had a “Trump Trade.”
Continue Reading - Same Fight, Different Opponent!
7/16/2024
The attempted assassination of former President Trump is an exclamation point on the sad state of political discourse in the United States.
Continue Reading - When the Rhetoric Has Gone Too Far
7/10/2024
Today is the start of our annual two-day Knights of Columbus Asset Advisors Investor Symposium. We provide an educational and, hopefully, thought-provoking seminar over two days with KoCAA investment professionals as well as external speakers.
Continue Reading - Just a Few Thoughts on a Wednesday!
7/1/2024
My wife and I are blessed to have several large circles of friends and they are truly a blessing in our lives!
Continue Reading - The View from My (lounge) Chair
6/24/2024
On Friday morning, S&P released their Purchasing Manager Indices on U.S. manufacturing, services, and the composite of all purchasing manager activity.
Continue Reading - So, What is the Data Telling Us?
6/20/2024
This morning, Friday June 14, the U.S. Consumer Sentiment Index was released and was at a seven-month low. The primary reason for the decline in the index is the impact that high prices are having on consumers and their finances.
Continue Reading - Is it Turning?
6/7/2024
I have written on several occasions that I love to read, and I also try to find economic research wherever it is available.
Continue Reading - But are they Good Jobs?
6/3/2024
This week witnessed the historic conviction of Donald Trump which may have forever changed politics in the U.S.
Continue Reading - What to do Now?
5/17/2024
I made a resolution to myself that I was going to try and focus on things other than inflation in this column!
Continue Reading - Funny How That Works Out!
5/3/2024
I had an occasion yesterday to speak to our General Agents about mutual fund sales strategies.
Continue Reading - That Comfy Feeling
5/3/2024
One of the great honors of my life is serving as a Supreme Director of Knights of Columbus, which also means I am a member of our board of directors.
Continue Reading - Is it Really All Gold if it Glitters?
4/29/2024
I have not posted anything to this blog because I have been attending a corporate governance seminar at Wharton this week.
Continue Reading - After a Brief Hiatus…
4/17/2024
I am a bit of a gym rat…actually, I am a complete gym rat. Not only do I want to keep in shape, but I do some of my best thinking when I am working out. This morning, while on the elliptical trainer, I was thinking about the impact of higher interest rates on the national debt.
Continue Reading - Wake-up Call
4/17/2024
“High energy” are two words that many use to describe me. As I am fascinated by what I do for a living, I read voraciously to keep up with all of the ebbs and flows in the capital markets.
Continue Reading - High Energy!
4/3/2024
As a kid, I grew up playing a ton of sports, and in my neighborhood, we pretty much played whatever was in season.
Continue Reading - A Pivot-ish?
4/3/2024
The “big bang” moment for the start of the Great Financial Crisis is often traced to August 2007 when initial problems within two Bear Stearns funds became news.
Continue Reading - The Slow Train Wreck Continues
3/28/2024
Regular readers know that I do not wade into politics in my writing, only when politics directly flows into the economy and market action.
Continue Reading - A Sad State of Affairs
3/22/2024
At 2:02 p.m. on March 20th, I am writing to discuss the Fed’s decision to keep the Fed Funds rate between the 5.25% to 5.50% range.
Continue Reading - The Latest and Greatest from the Fed
3/14/2024
All eyes were on the release of CPI this morning (March 12th) to see if there were clues on the direction of inflation which may also help decipher the next move from the Fed.
Continue Reading - The Inflation Grind Continues
3/1/2024
Prior to my career with the Knights of Columbus, I spent 18 years at Evaluation Associates, a leading institutional consulting firm for pension funds, foundations, endowments, financial intermediaries, and insurance companies.
Continue Reading - Beware of the Rhetoric
2/22/2024
In the last week or so the markets have absorbed the fact that a March rate cut is well off the table, and market prognosticators have begun reevaluating when the Fed might start the cycle of reducing the Fed Funds rate.
Continue Reading - The Last Mile…Indeed!
2/15/2024
I was not sure whether to title this “It’s Still Here” or “It Never Left”. Of course, the “it” is inflation, and the release this morning showed that CPI grew by 0.3% versus the consensus view of 0.2%.
Continue Reading - It’s Still Here!
2/7/2024
I know my voice and my reach are limited. At the same time, much of what I am about to write will not be shocking for astute students of the economy and markets.
Continue Reading - If Only They Would Listen
2/5/2024
The market was disappointed when Jerome Powell indicated that a March Fed Funds rate reduction was not in the cards.
Continue Reading - Did Jobs and Wages get the Message?
1/30/2024
We continue to watch the growing tension in the Middle East and I’m sure all of you are well aware that a drone attack in Jordan left three U.S. service members dead and about forty other soldiers injured.
Continue Reading - Update for a Monday
1/25/2024
I recently spoke to a group and quipped that if you didn’t pay attention to the bond market in 2023 you would be inclined to think it was a ho-hum year, as the 10-year Treasury yield ended the year right where it started.
Continue Reading - All Better and Nothing to See Here?
1/19/2024
The founders of our country served time in government roles and then went back to their lives. In many cases, the generations who came of age in the first half of the 20th century felt a need to contribute to society through government service and then went to the private sector.
Continue Reading - The Great Disconnect
1/19/2024
As of the January 10th close, the 10-year Treasuray yield had increased about 15 basis points from year end, to 4.03%. All the financial press today is focused on data releases that may provide clues as to the next move for inflation.
Continue Reading - Threading the Needle
1/9/2024
The last mile is often said to be the most expensive because that is where a package is driven to a specific location for delivery. This is the costliest and least efficient because a driver can only deliver to one address at a time.
Continue Reading - The Last Mile
12/21/2023
I am a long-suffering, but loyal New York Jets fan. As someone who grew up before modern sports betting, I understand betting on a game with a point spread or betting the over/under on total points scored, however, the ability to bet on individual plays and players is still a bit foreign to me.
Continue Reading - FanDuel for the Markets
12/20/2023
I promise that we are not predicting Armageddon or extolling investors to completely move to cash. We are asking people to be thoughtful and not just assume the “consensus” view of a soft landing is a “fait accompli.”
Continue Reading - I Promise
12/7/2023
In a previous blog post, I raised the question, “How high can rates go?”. Specifically, I was discussing the rate on the 10-year Treasury. We ultimately saw a closing high of 4.99% . As I pen this on November 30th, the 10-year Treasury yield stands at 4.33%, representing a decline of 66 basis points in fairly short order. It has been a quick move which is having many consider if we have seen the high and if should we now begin focusing on how low can rates go.
Continue Reading - Not So Fast!
11/22/2023
When the recent CPI data was released, it exhibited that annual inflation is running at 3.2% year-over-year for headline inflation and 4.0% excluding food and energy. A key piece to note is that headline inflation was flat for the month of October.
Continue Reading - Thinking Out Loud
11/16/2023
Powell knows that increasing rates will ultimately tamp down inflation, but he appears to want to be vigilant, so we do not end up with the environment that Paul Volker battled in the early 1980’s.
Continue Reading - Be Ever Vigilant!
11/9/2023
Several months ago, I was invited by Jean-Baptiste de Franssu, the head of the Vatican Bank, to be part of a planning committee for a conference on Mensuram Bonam.
Continue Reading - Mensuram Bonam Conference Recap
11/3/2023
Having spent more than 30 years in the investment industry, there are several investment professionals that I hold in high regard.
Continue Reading - Where Are The Adults?
10/27/2023
The question has become, how high can it go? By “it”, I am referring to the yield on the 10-year Treasury. Despite elevated inflation for about two years, the economy continues to grind higher.
Continue Reading - Inflation: How High Can It Go?
10/27/2023
So, I was wrong, or at least I might be wrong. I attended a conference the other day and the subject of green energy and a transition to electric cars was a topic of discussion at the table. I made the point that I think some variation of Moore’s Law will take place in green energy in the same way that it has existed in computing power.
Continue Reading - Electric Cars: I May Have Been Wrong
